Seraya Investment Webcast #2

What ‘Trump 2.0’ means for Asian economies and markets, and our view on China’s recent stimulus package

This Insight is not investment advice and should not be construed as such. Past performance is not predictive of future results. Fund(s) managed by Seraya Investment may be long or short securities mentioned in this Insight. Any resemblance of people or companies mentioned in this Insight to real entities is purely coincidental. Our full Disclaimer can be found here.

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Welcome to Seraya Investment’s second investment webcast: Nik Hanim (Managing Director of AIMS Asset Management) in conversation with Andrew Limond (CIO of Seraya Investment). 

This webcast covers the following topics:  

• Donald Trump’s 2024 US Presidential Election win and the near-term impact on financial markets;  

• President-elect Trump’s policy priorities;  

• Tariffs versus transactionality – how serious are President-elect Trump’s tariff threats;  

• Expectations regarding US foreign policy towards China; 

• Is a US foreign policy pivot towards China realistic; 

• What are China’s current policy priorities; 

• The potential impact of ‘Trump 2.0’ on North Asian countries; 

• Our outlook for Vietnam and Vietnamese stocks under ‘Trump 2.0’;  

• The outlook for South Asia and Southeast Asia;  

• Constraints on the new Trump administration – impediments to policy goals; and, 

• Portfolio construction and stock implications for the Panah and Pasiwali Funds.  

During the webcast filming and editing process, our comments on monetary policy were lost. These should read as follows (starting from timecode 35:26 in the webcast):

On monetary policy, it’s really unclear whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates aggressively next year, especially given the inflationary risks that we just highlighted. Note that the Fed is the one institution which is ‘independent’, and not under the control of Trump and the Republican Party. Fed chairman Powell will be in the role of chair until 2026. President Trump has made it clear that he would like to replace Chairman Powell with somebody more pliable, and there has even been talk of setting up a ‘shadow Fed’ within the White House next year, to influence market perceptions. If the independence of the Fed is being threatened at the same time as fiscal responsibility is called into question, that might be awkward.

Thank you for watching.  

The Seraya Investment team

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